How the coronavirus outbreak is affecting travel

Two major US airlines have suspended some flight routes to China.

US airlines are suspending some flights to China in the midst of a coronavirus outbreak, citing a drop in demand for those routes from travelers. All major US carriers — United, American, and Delta — have also waived change and cancellation fees for China-bound travelers through the end of February.

As of January 29, at least 6,165 people have contracted cases of 2019-nCoV, a respiratory illness that originated in Wuhan, China. There are currently five cases of coronavirus in the US from patients who’d recently traveled to Wuhan.

On Tuesday, the White House reportedly warned airlines that it might ban all China-US flights if the disease becomes a bigger public health threat in the United States, according to the Washington Post. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also expanded its travel warning Tuesday, recommending that Americans “avoid all nonessential travel” to China.

The majority of coronavirus cases and deaths are occurring in mainland China, but infections have been confirmed in at least a dozen other countries, including the US, Canada, France, Germany, and South Korea. Vox’s Julia Belluz writes, “Less than four weeks into the outbreak, fear about how bad this could get is spreading faster than the virus. … People are buying face masks. Markets are on edge. Cities and countries are responding with mass quarantines and travel bans.”

Given the global concern surrounding the outbreak, the demand for travel to mainland China has declined considerably, according to US airlines. Several China-based online travel agencies and American hotel chains, like Marriott and Hilton, are also offering free cancellations or changes to bookings.

Steve Parsons/PA Images/Getty Images

Unless the White House takes action to entirely cut off travel to China, however, US airlines will likely continue providing flights to the mainland — a decision that differentiates American carriers from many of their international counterparts, which have halted service. British Airways has stopped all of its flights to China, as did Air India, Indonesia’s Lion Air, and South Korea’s Seoul Air.

Airlines, which operate on slim profit margins, are strategically cutting back on future flight routes that aren’t filling up.

“It’s really just as simple that airlines tend not to fly to places people (including their cockpit and cabin crews, by the way) are being told not to travel to, even when that is temporary,” Robert Mann, an aviation industry consultant, wrote to Vox in an email.

United Airlines was the first major US carrier to cancel dozens of China-bound flights between February 1 and 8. (Out of all US airlines, United offers the most flights to China.) The airline is reducing service on routes from major US airports to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, CNBC reported. Instead of operating about 12 flights a day from mainland China and Hong Kong, it will scale back to three or four.

It’s possible that airplanes typically flown on these routes will be deployed elsewhere, which helps an airline mitigate losses from reduced operations, Mann added.

“China represents about 3.8 percent of all the international seats for American, Delta, and United,” said Austin Horowitz, senior aviation management consultant at the global consulting firm ICF. “It’s a small portion of their international ticket sales, but still a significant number.”

The biggest impact of halted flights would primarily fall on Asia-based carriers, he said. Like Delta and American, United is providing travel waivers for passengers flying into China and Hong Kong to allow people to change flights between the same cities without paying a fee. According to United’s website, the waiver covers travelers flying into Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai airports with original travel dates from January 24 to February 29, and Wuhan airport from January 22 to March 29. Passengers can also request a refund for flights they did not take.

On Wednesday, American Airlines followed United’s lead in reducing service to China. The carrier will suspend travel between Los Angeles International Airport and Shanghai and Beijing airports from February 9 to March 27, “given the significant decline in demand to and from China,” said Curtis Blessing, an airline spokesperson.

American Airlines passengers can cancel and receive a refund for a trip if they’re scheduled to travel to or from Wuhan from January 23 to March 31, according to the airline’s website. Travelers flying to Beijing, Shanghai, or Hong Kong can receive a change fee waiver if they originally had a trip between January 24 and February 29. However, American will continue its service from Dallas-Fort Worth to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, as well as from Los Angeles to Hong Kong.

Delta has not yet announced any service changes, but that could change if the outbreak worsens. Even if the White House hypothetically enacted a temporary travel ban, Horowitz thinks its financial effects “would not be much greater than people electing not to travel.”

“The airlines are already losing a significant number of passengers because people are not traveling voluntarily,” he said.

The travel industry is usually hit the hardest by pandemic threats. Fueled by mass hysteria, politicians in cities and countries around the world clamor to secure their borders against the threat of a spreadable disease. During the 2003 SARS outbreak, which affected over 8,000 people, stocks of US airlines dropped more than 30 percent (as did the economy overall), Barron’s reported.

In late January, US officials implemented stricter airport screenings and the State Department issued a Level 3 “reconsider travel” advisory to China, actions that demonstrate how seriously they are monitoring the coronavirus threat. Airports in Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco are screening travelers from Wuhan for symptoms of the virus. (Despite these measures, previous pandemic travel bans and quarantines have failed to prevent the spread of the diseases they’re meant to stop.)

Certainly, there are risks if you choose to travel to China, especially near the disease’s epicenter in Wuhan. Travelers are rightfully concerned for their health, but Horowitz maintains that US airlines shouldn’t be calling the shots as to who gets to travel and who doesn’t.

“Perhaps there’s a family member who wants to return to China or a doctor who wishes to volunteer,” he said. “It isn’t the airline’s place to make that decision; it’s the US government.”

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