We’re still waiting for final results, but here’s what multiple entrance polls show so far.
Voting is underway in the Nevada caucuses. While we are still waiting for official results, we have some numbers from early entrance polls — and they look good for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
First, the usual disclaimer about entrance polls: They don’t always capture the results accurately and have been wrong before. In the past, some entrance polls have discounted Latino voters, appearing to skew the results for a different candidate before the actual votes came in.
Numbers from entrance polls are still rolling in as pollsters continue to interview voters. That said, the early data from major TV networks and newspapers is showing Sen. Bernie Sanders in the lead.
NBC poll of early voters: Sanders ahead with early voters
NBC has a poll of Nevadans who voted during the state’s early voting period, based on interviews of 2,122 voters’ initial preferences. Per NBC’s Steve Kornacki, Sanders is strong in multiple categories; the NBC poll shows Sanders leading among white voters (which make up about 66 percent of Nevada voters) and with a wider lead among Hispanic voters (about 17 percent of Nevada voters). Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden leads among African American voters (about 10 percent of Nevada voters).
Here’s the NBC breakdown among demographics:
White voters
- Sanders — 31 percent
- Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg — 18 percent
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar — 13 percent
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren — 13 percent
- Biden — 12 percent
Hispanic voters
- Sanders — 51 percent
- Biden — 13 percent
- Buttigieg — 10 percent
- Businessman Tom Steyer — 9 percent
- Warren — 8 percent
- Klobuchar — 6 percent
Black voters
- Biden — 36 percent
- Sanders — 25 percent
- Steyer — 13 percent
- Warren — 13 percent
- Klobuchar — 3 percent
- Buttigieg — 2 percent
Here’s the NBC poll breakdown by age. The candidates are tightly clustered among voters who are over 45 years old, with Biden and Sanders tied among this group. The poll shows that Sanders appears to be winning the vast majority of younger voters.
Voters over 45 years old
- Biden — 20 percent
- Sanders — 20 percent
- Buttigieg — 16 percent
- Klobuchar — 15 percent
- Warren — 13 percent
- Steyer — 11 percent
Voters under 45 years old
- Sanders — 60 percent
- Buttigieg — 13 percent
- Warren — 11 percent
- Biden — 5 percent
- Klobuchar — 3 percent
The ideological breakdown in the NBC poll also looks good for Sanders. He has a slight lead among the 34 percent of polled voters who identify as moderate or conservative, followed by Biden and Buttigieg.
Self-identified moderate/conservative voters
- Sanders — 23 percent
- Biden — 22 percent
- Buttigieg — 20 percent
- Klobuchar — 14 percent
- Steyer — 10 percent
CNN entrance poll: Latino voters could give Sanders a boost
CNN’s entrance poll numbers are still rolling in. As with the NBC early vote poll, this entrance poll shows Sanders strong in multiple categories.
Here’s the CNN breakdown among demographics:
White voters
- Sanders — 30 percent
- Buttigieg — 19 percent
- Klobuchar — 14 percent
- Warren — 14 percent
- Biden — 12 percent
Hispanic voters
- Sanders — 54 percent
- Biden — 14 percent
- Buttigieg — 9 percent
- Steyer — 7 percent
- Warren — 7 percent
Black voters
- Biden — 34 percent
- Sanders — 28 percent
- Steyer — 17 percent
- Warren — 12 percent
- Klobuchar — 3 percent
CNN’s poll found that Sanders had a commanding lead among self-described liberal voters in Nevada. Here’s that ideological breakdown:
Liberal voters
- Sanders — 52 percent
- Warren — 17 percent
- Biden — 9 percent
- Buttigieg — 8 percent
- Klobuchar — 8 percent
The CNN entrance poll also found three in five Nevada caucus-goers decided whom they’d be voting for before February, compared to two in five voters who reported deciding in the past month.
Early polling also seems to suggest Nevada voters agree with Sanders on Medicare-for-all: CNN’s entrance poll showed 62 percent of Nevadans support the policy.
Washington Post’s entrance poll: Biden is up with black voters
The Washington Post has also posted entrance poll results, which are being updated as the Post conducts more interviews. Its entrance polls also show Sanders winning in many key categories. Here’s what the poll shows so far:
Breakdown among gender: Men make up 46 percent of voters, and women 54 percent.
Men
- Sanders — 39 percent
- Buttigieg — 16 percent
- Biden — 15 percent
- Warren — 10 percent
- Klobuchar — 9 percent
Women
- Sanders — 31 percent
- Biden — 15 percent
- Buttigieg — 14 percent
- Warren — 14 percent
- Klobuchar — 12 percent
Here’s the Post’s demographics breakdown; it shows white voters making up 65 percent of the total electorate, Hispanic/Latino voters 18 percent of the electorate, and black voters 11 percent of the total.
White voters
- Sanders — 30 percent
- Buttigieg — 19 percent
- Klobuchar — 14 percent
- Warren — 14 percent
- Biden — 12 percent
Hispanic/Latino voters
- Sanders — 54 percent
- Biden — 14 percent
- Buttigieg — 9 percent
- Warren — 7 percent
- Klobuchar — 5 percent
Black voters
- Biden — 34 percent
- Sanders — 28 percent
- Warren — 12 percent
- Klobuchar — 3 percent
- Buttigieg — 2 percent
The Post’s age breakdown shows Sanders leading most age categories, save for voters 65 and older, most of whom support Biden.
Voters ages 17 to 29
- Sanders — 68 percent
- Buttigieg — 10 percent
- Biden — 7 percent
- Warren — 6 percent
- Klobuchar — 2 percent
Voters ages 30 to 44
- Sanders — 49 percent
- Warren — 15 percent
- Buttigieg — 15 percent
- Biden — 5 percent
- Klobuchar — 5 percent
Voters ages 45 to 64
- Sanders — 27 percent
- Buttigieg — 18 percent
- Biden — 15 percent
- Warren — 14 percent
- Klobuchar — 11 percent
Voters ages 65 and older
- Biden — 27 percent
- Klobuchar — 20 percent
- Sanders — 13 percent
- Buttigieg — 13 percent
- Warren — 10 percent
The Post’s poll shows similar results for ideology as CNN and NBC’s polls. Here’s the ideology breakdown:
Very liberal voters
- Sanders — 52 percent
- Warren — 16 percent
- Buttigieg — 9 percent
- Biden — 9 percent
- Klobuchar — 5 percent
Somewhat liberal voters
- Sanders — 31 percent
- Buttigieg — 16 percent
- Warren — 14 percent
- Klobuchar — 13 percent
- Biden — 13 percent
Moderate or conservative voters
- Sanders — 24 percent
- Biden — 22 percent
- Buttigieg — 19 percent
- Klobuchar — 13 percent
- Warren — 7 percent
The Washington Post Nevada entrance poll also showed that six in 10 voters said they supported creating a single-payer health care system, even if it meant eliminating private insurance.
It’s worth repeating that it’s still early and we are still waiting for final results. But, added up, these seem like promising numbers for Sanders.
Author: Ella Nilsen
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