The 2020 US House elections

The Democrats are likely to retain their majority.

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are on the line in the 2020 election.

The Democrats currently hold a 232-197 majority, with one Libertarian and five open seats. They claimed that majority in the 2018 midterm elections, after the Republicans had held the chamber since 2010.

President Donald Trump predicted at the last presidential debate that the GOP would retake the House this year because of Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the lack of a new Covid-19 stimulus bill. That’s unlikely to happen — FiveThirtyEight gave Republicans between a 3 and 8 percent chance of flipping the House.

Still, there are interesting battlegrounds to watch around the country. Jeff Van Drew was elected as a Democrat in New Jersey’s Second District in 2018. But in December 2019, after voting against both articles of impeachment against Trump, he switched his party affiliation to Republican. This year, Van Drew is up against Democrat Amy Kennedy, a former teacher.

Missouri’s Second District, in suburban St. Louis, is another potential pickup opportunity for Democrats. Republican Ann Wagner has held the seat since 2013 but this year faces a tough challenge from Jill Schupp, a current state senator. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named has this as a target district, and most polls are extremely close.

The Second District in New Mexico could be a pickup for Republicans. The district serves the southern half of New Mexico, and in 2018, Democrat Xochitl Torres Small narrowly beat Republican Yvette Herrell to take the open seat. The two will rematch this year, as Herrell is now challenging the incumbent Torres Small, and the race is expected to be very tight.

The stakes of this election are high. Follow along below for Vox’s election coverage, including live results, breaking news updates, analysis, and more.