The Israeli attacks in Lebanon could lead to the wider war we’ve been fearing

More than 450 people were killed and 1,500 injured in Israeli airstrikes targeting southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as the country’s capital, Beirut, on Monday. The airstrikes mark a significant and threatening escalation of hostilities following an apparent Israeli attack that used explosive pagers (and other electronic devices) to kill members of the Shia militant and political group Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon.

Israel and Hezbollah have regularly traded rocket fire over Lebanon’s southern border with Israel for years. However, since Israel launched its war in Gaza in retaliation for Hamas’s attacks in Israel on October 7, Hezbollah — a Hamas ally — has increased the tempo of rocket launches, and has hit targets deeper within Israel. Israel has increased its attacks as well, and as a result, more than 110,000 Lebanese and about 60,000 Israelis are internally displaced.

Last week, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant announced that Israel was entering a “new phase” of its ongoing war on Gaza and Hamas, one that would put greater focus on its conflict with Hezbollah. “The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north,” Gallant told members of Israel’s air force on September 18, referring to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. 

Concerns that the conflict in Gaza would spark a full war between Israel, Hezbollah, and their allies have existed for the entirety of the nearly year-long conflict. But the latest rounds of Israeli attacks are a provocative escalation that could threaten the fragile balance of more measured tit-for-tat missile strikes that had become fairly routine for Israel and Hezbollah.

Still, the unknowns are many: whether Hezbollah can or will respond in an escalatory fashion; whether Israel is prepared to launch a ground invasion into Lebanon, as it has done before to disastrous effect; and whether the US will — or can — constrain Israel and force them to pull back.

Israel and Hezbollah’s conflict, briefly explained

Hezbollah has been in conflict with Israel for decades. The group is both a militia and a political party that holds seats in Lebanon’s parliament and provides services for the country’s impoverished Shia community. Formed in the wake of Israel’s disastrous 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah has fought against Israel multiple times, most recently in 2000 and 2006. 

The latter war was particularly devastating, killing more than 1,000 people, and leading to an estimated $2.8 billion in damage across Lebanon. The country has never quite recovered from that war; a government collapse, Covid-19, and the Beirut port explosion of 2020 have pushed the country even further into crisis. The country can ill afford a full-scale war, and those in Lebanon not aligned with Hezbollah would like to avoid a conflict like the one in 2006. 

Whether that is possible remains to be seen. Israel has staged a number of attacks on Hezbollah, including the reported assassination of senior Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in July. The coordinated attack that used pagers and walkie-talkies to decimate Hezbollah’s communications system believed to have been conducted by Israel injured more than 3,000 and killed at least 32, including children and the elderly, according to Lebanon’s health minister Dr. Firass Abiad. (Israel does not claim responsibility for assassinations or attacks like last week’s; Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the attack.)

Israel began bombing targets in southern Lebanon Friday, including the suburbs and interior of Beirut, and a Hezbollah commander who had been part of the organization since the beginning was killed as he met with other Hezbollah fighters. Monday, September 23, has reportedly been the deadliest Israeli attack on Lebanon since the 2006 war.

There’s the distinct possibility that these continued attacks will spiral out of control; Israel has already shown willingness to cross the Biden administration’s “red line” in their war in Gaza by invading the city of Rafah in Gaza. 

Hezbollah, meanwhile, must walk a fine line if it chooses to retaliate — which is not a given, despite leader Hassan Nasrallah’s promise that Israel would “face just retribution and a bitter reckoning.” Hezbollah has reportedly fired 8,000 rockets into Israeli territory since October 7, some targeting the Israeli weapons manufacturer Rafael and the Ramat David air base, both near the city of Haifa. 

Hezbollah has emphasized its solidarity with Hamas since the start of the war in Gaza, and has promised to continue attacks on Israel until there is a ceasefire. Both Hezbollah and Hamas benefit from Iranian financial and tactical assistance, but Hezbollah is much more closely aligned with Iran’s foreign policy objectives than Hamas is. 

That has led to concerns about Iran becoming involved in a regional war should Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah escalate. Even if Iran doesn’t enter the conflict, a Hezbollah-Israel war could be incredibly bloody: Hezbollah is larger and better armed than Hamas; if Israel does launch a ground invasion into southern Lebanon, there’s a large chance that they will face even fiercer resistance than in Gaza. 

Still, there are reasons to believe Hezbollah may choose to de-escalate the conflict, including the fact that any war would almost certainly be horrifically destructive to Lebanon, a country already struggling with a dysfunctional government and an economic crash.

“Hezbollah has several concerns,” when it comes to deciding its next steps, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Vox. “One is maintaining Iranian support, and [staying] aligned with Iran’s assessments and regional strategy. And the other is, 85 percent of Lebanese are now below the poverty line. The country’s been reeling economically, and if Hezbollah seems to invite a devastating Israeli assault on Lebanon, then some number of Lebanese would consider that reckless and damaging.”

A diplomatic solution, perhaps one in which Hezbollah agrees to remove its positions close to Lebanon’s southern border, is certainly possible. That would allow Israelis to move back to their homes in the north. Whatever the outcome, however, Israel will likely not be able to eliminate Hezbollah, just as it has failed at eliminating Hamas. And continued aggression could lead to more extreme outcomes in the future.