Hurricane Delta: What we know about the storm in the Gulf of Mexico

The storm made landfall as a category 2 hurricane near Cancun, Mexico Wednesday morning.

Hurricane Delta, the latest storm in this year’s “hyperactive” Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall 20 miles south of Cancun, Mexico early Wednesday morning as a category 2 storm, and is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and heavy winds to the Yucatan Peninsula.

After battering the Yucatan, the storm is expected to head toward the Gulf Coast of the US. “There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Over the past day and a half, the storm morphed from a mere tropical depression (indicating wind speeds less than 38 mph) to a Category 4 hurricane— a record-setting intensification, according to Samuel Lillo, a postdoctoral meteorologist at the University of Colorado Boulder

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes, and rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Delta are becoming more common due to climate change as well.

As of Tuesday evening, Delta had reached maximum sustained winds of 145 mph as it barreled through the Caribbean Sea. The storm had at least a 30 percent chance of growing into the strongest type of hurricane, Category 5 (with wind speeds in excess of 156 miles per hour) by the time it reached land, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters.

NHC

The tourist hot spot Cancun may have avoided severe physical destruction since the storm didn’t make a direct hit, and instead landed 25 miles away. The government ordered evacuations on Tuesday morning, and tens of thousands of tourists had to relocate to shelters.

After moving through the Yucatan, the storm is projected to travel up the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall again on the US Gulf Coast on Friday. Where exactly Delta might land remains uncertain, but the current trajectory shows it primarily hitting Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. It could also impact Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle, and could bring 4 to 8 inches of rain, even up to 12 inches in some places.

These states are still rebounding from the impact of Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Sally over the past two months.

Though its brush with the Yucatan will slow the storm, it is expected to pick up speed again.

“Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico,” according to the National Hurricane Center briefing on Tuesday afternoon.

As Vox’s Brian Resnick explained, forecasts for a hurricane’s trajectory, particularly beyond the immediate 24 hours. are more prone to uncertainty, and forecasting storm intensity is particularly difficult. But Gulf Coast residents should prepare for another major storm in line with the latest National Hurricane Center projections.

How to follow Delta:

• The National Hurricane Center has a page updating every few hours with the latest watches and warnings for Delta. Check it out.
• Here’s a Twitter list of weather experts who will provide up-to-the-second forecasts and warnings.

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